Decision to leave EU: How have house prices changed?

Recent research has indicated how the UK housing market has changed since the vote to leave the European Union last year.

Having analysed UK house price growth going back to June last year, eMoov found that there had been a 3.35% increase in the average house price, from £212,950 to £220,094.

Growing by 2.27%, the largest rise in house prices was observed in the regions where the majority voted to depart the EU. For the regions which favoured remain, the rise in house prices was more modest at 1.36%.

The regions which saw the most substantial increase in house prices all had a majority leave vote, with the East Midlands coming top where growth was 3.84%. Just behind this was the West Midlands at 3.62%, followed by the East of England at 3.46%.

In London, house prices have grown by 1.12% since last year’s referendum, up to £482,779. In the five boroughs which were home to a majority leave vote – Barking, Bexley, Havering, Hillingdon and Sutton –  house price growth reached 11.10%. On average, house prices grew by a comparably lower 1.90% across the remaining boroughs.

The South East, in general, saw average house prices rise by 1.55%, up to £315,334, whilst the East of England observed prices growing by 3.46% since the referendum. In this area, the average growth gap between the leave and remain areas was substantial; whilst prices rose by 1.03% in areas which voted remain, the growth in leave locations was 4.99%.

Up by 10.07%, the areas here with the highest growth all voted to leave, although the largest price fall was also seen in a leave location, down by -1.06%.

Growing by 2.73%, the average house price in the South West region stands at £243,215. Leave areas did see prices rise at a higher level, however, the difference with remain locations was more marginal at 0.7%.

Rising by 3.84% and 3.62%, the East and West Midlands have respectively seen the largest increase in house prices since the vote to leave the EU.

At 5.67%, the remain areas in the East Midlands experienced the highest level of growth, with leave areas observing an average price rise of 4.34%.

In the West Midlands, house prices grew by 3.25% in leave locations, whilst rising by a more modest 2.37% in areas where the majority voted to remain.

At 2.92%, house prices in Yorkshire and the Humber have risen steadily since last year’s referendum. Here, the largest rate of growth was observed in areas with a leave majority, on average rising by 2.05% since June. Remain areas, however, observed average house prices rise by 1.98%.

In regard to the Northern regions, the North East actually observed a fall in average prices. Dropping by -2.71%, it was the only region to see a decline since the decision to leave the EU. In contrast, the North West saw a strong increase of 2.92% – the third highest growth in the UK.

The areas which voted remain in both of these reasons tended to see stronger growth, with North West prices rising by 1.67% in leave areas, compared to a 3.84% rise for areas which voted to remain.

Commenting on the research was Russell Quirk. The founder and CEO of eMoov drew attention to the growth gap between the leave and remain regions as well as highlighting that some areas appear to be immune from political uncertainty.

“We thought it would be interesting to run this research from a neutral standpoint to assess what impact, if any, the EU Referendum has had on the UK property market.

What is clear is that those areas that voted to remain were home to a much higher average house price in general and it would seem that it is this upper end of the market in each region that has seen price growth slow the most.

Encouraging news for those at the other end of the ladder, who seem to be benefitting the most since the decision to leave. What it certainly does highlight is that there are still swathes of the market, even in London, where the UK property market remains immune to any external political uncertainty, and this should stand us in good stead as we exit the EU and with the recent general election in mind.”

 

Today's Conveyancer