Home sales see 14% monthly decline

Home sales see 14% monthly decline

The latest LSL England and Wales House Price Index for August 2015 has been released and the data shows:

  • Average house prices across England and Wales jumped £1,900 in August – fastest rise seen for past twelve months
  • Takes property values to eighth peak this year, standing at £282,816 after 4.1% annual increase
  • East Anglia sees the highest rise in prices of all regions, due to a scarcity of properties coming to the market
  • Overall home sales fall behind 2013 levels for the first time this year in August, following 14% monthly drop
  • The North records strongest activity, with only increase in property sales over the past three months, up 3% year-on-year

Richard Sexton, Director of e.surv chartered surveyors, comments:

“House price growth now firmly has the bit between its teeth, and August witnessed the strongest monthly boost for a year. Average property values across England and Wales have jumped 0.7% (equal to £1,876) since July, which is the biggest monthly increase seen since August 2014. So far in 2015, monthly price rises had struggled to break above the 0.5%, so this clearly marks a step up in pace, as a shortfall of summer sellers puts buyers in hot contention for properties.

“August’s monthly surge takes house prices to their eighth peak this year, with the typical home value in England and Wales now standing at £282,816. This means that compared to last year, average property prices have climbed £11,225. More importantly, all ten regions of England and Wales are showing annual increases in house prices – the last region to experience a year-on-year fall in property values was Wales in July 2013.

“Home sales across England and Wales reached 76,700 in August, down 14% on July levels. This should be taken with a pinch a salt – July was an exceptionally strong month for transactions, and activity in August can be seen as balancing this out. But August is also the first time in 2015 to date that property sales have fallen below their equivalent month in 2013. In the three months to July 2015, property sales have dropped 3% year-on-year. Across all of England and Wales, the North is the only region where activity has increased over the period, with home sales up 3% during May to July 2015 compared to the same three months in 2014.

“The largest fall in activity has been in East Anglia, with total property sales down 9%, and sales of flats 15% lower year-on-year from May to July. At the same time, this region has experienced the highest house price growth of any region, at 5.9% in July 2015. This dichotomy suggests it’s not demand that is the problem, but supply. The lack of properties coming onto the market here is intensifying competition and heating up price rises, above temperatures we’re seeing elsewhere.

“The nationwide mismatch between sellers putting homes up for sale and buyer demand should warm up measures of growth for the autumn. August represented the twelfth month in succession that the annual rate of growth declined – down steadily from 11.1% in August 2014, to 4.1% last month. But encouragingly, we’re seeing this downtrend start to level-off now, suggesting that the annual rate of price rises may start to pick-up again soon, driven by the strengthening monthly improvements that are emerging. Property price growth in London has been waning most notably recently, but this appears to be following a similar pattern to the nationwide trend, and after bottoming out, we are beginning to see signs that house prices in the capital are starting to gee up. Once again, London and the South East are boosting our overall measures of average annual change for England and Wales as a whole.”

Peter Williams, Chairman of Acadata and John Tindale, Acadata housing analyst comment:

“We estimate that the number of housing transactions in England & Wales for the month of August 2015 as recorded by the Land Registry will total some 76,700. This is 14% lower than the level seen in July 2015, compared to a typical seasonal decrease of -0.5% for this time of year. The rise in transactions in July 2015, which put 2015 levels ahead of those recorded in 2013 and 2014, has been eradicated with the number of sales in August 2015 being lower than in August 2013. This is the first time in 2015 that monthly transactions have been lower than the equivalent month in 2013.

“Taking the three months May 2015 to July 2015 and comparing with the equivalent three months in 2014, we estimate that transactions in England & Wales have fallen by 3%. The largest shortfall by region has been in East Anglia, where overall sales have fallen by 9%, followed by Greater London where sales are 6% lower. The only region that has seen an increase in transactions over this time period is the North, where the number of sales has increased by 3%.

“East Anglia currently has the highest rate of house price inflation of any of the regions in England & Wales, but as discussed above, has also witnessed the largest reduction in property transactions. It is statistics such as these which suggest that it is property scarcity that is driving prices upward in the region, as opposed to an upsurge in demand, although that too may be adding to the pressure on prices.”

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